{"id":4041,"date":"2026-08-25T17:12:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T20:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/?p=4041"},"modified":"2026-09-16T00:08:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T03:08:12","slug":"ruptura-de-estoque-varejo-alimenticio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/en\/ruptura-de-estoque-varejo-alimenticio\/","title":{"rendered":"Stockouts: how the world's biggest retail chains are tackling empty shelves"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every supermarket manager knows the scene. A customer walks to the shelf, cannot find the coffee they always buy, looks around for a few seconds and heads to the checkout with a slightly emptier cart. The sale of that item vanishes from revenue without a trace, because a product that was not sold shows up in no report. It simply does not exist in the numbers. This failure has a name in food retail: stockout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And stockouts are far more expensive than most chains imagine, because the damage does not stop at that day's lost sale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In July 2026, the <a href=\"https:\/\/diariodocomercio.com.br\/negocios\/ruptura-supermercados-menor-nivel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Neogrid Stockout Index<\/a> recorded 10.8% in Brazilian physical stores. It is the lowest level in twelve months, which already says something about the size of the problem when the best result of the year still means that roughly one in every nine trips to the shelf ends without the product in the customer's hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How much stockouts cost in food retail<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is an important difference between knowing that products are missing and knowing how much that absence costs. Everyone has the first piece of information. It is the second one that changes investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Brazilian picture in numbers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data from Neogrid, which monitors around 40 thousand stores in the country, shows a recent improvement with worrying pockets. The overall stockout index fell from 11.5% in June to 10.8% in July 2026. When you break it down by category, the picture gets more interesting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"margin-bottom:1.2em\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>eggs: down from 27.8% to 22.4%, and still the highest stockout in the monitored staples basket;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UHT milk: from 13.8% to 11.4%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>rice: from 11.0% to 9.5%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>coffee: from 9.4% to 7.4%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>sugar: from 9.4% to 8.5%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>beans: from 8.3% to 8.1%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>toilet paper: up from 14.1% to 15.9%, moving against the rest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Look at the case of eggs. More than a fifth of the searches for a basic item end in frustration. It is not a sophisticated or seasonal product. It is eggs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bill the whole world pays<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ihlservices.com\/product\/inventory-distortion-study-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The IHL Group<\/a> has tracked this indicator for almost two decades and published a 2026 study covering more than 4,500 retailers. The number that came out of it: 1.7 trillion dollars a year in inventory distortion in global retail, the equivalent of 6.2% of all sales in the sector worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of that total, about two thirds come from stockouts, and the remaining third from overstock. In other words, the problem of missing products is roughly twice as large as the problem of surplus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study also shows where the loss comes from, and here is the part that tends to surprise. Theft accounts for more than 500 billion dollars. The retailer's own internal inefficiency accounts for almost as much. Supplier failures add up to more than 300 billion. In other words: a good part of the money that evaporates does not leave through the front door with a thief, but through internal processes nobody is watching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is a trend worth noting. This distortion represented 10.4% of global sales in 2021 and has fallen to the current 6.2%. A big improvement, but the absolute value remains in the trillion range because retail has grown as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The loss that never makes it into the spreadsheet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding up the lost sale is the easy math. The hard part is measuring what happens afterwards, and that is exactly where the bigger cost lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 2025 GS1 Brasil survey found that 58% of consumers stop buying and stop returning to the store when they cannot find the products and brands they are looking for. It is not just the item that is lost. It is the next trip to the store.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This behavior gained extra weight in a market where loyalty is already fragile. Private labels reached a record 23.8% unit share in 2026, and consumers show far less attachment to traditional brands than they did a few years ago. When they do not find what they wanted, substitution is quick, and sometimes permanent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What NRF 2026 put at the center of the conversation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The National Retail Federation brought global retail together in New York in January 2026, and on-shelf availability featured heavily in the program. The tone of the discussions changed compared with previous years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The shelf became a data source<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Simbe presented Tally 4.0 at the show, a new generation of the robot that roams the aisles reading the shelves. What is new in this version is not the scanning itself, which already existed, but the processing: the device analyzes the images on board instead of sending everything to the cloud and waiting for an answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It sounds like a technical detail, but it changes the nature of the information. A stockout detected and reported within seconds is a problem you can still fix within the same shift. The same stockout detected in the next day's report has already become a lost sale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Caitlin Allen, of Simbe, summed up the industry's shift by saying the conversation has matured and now revolves around how store technology works, no longer around whether it is viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The gap between the system and the shelf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A point repeated across several panels was the distance between what the system reports and what is actually on the shelf. It is not rare for inventory to show dozens of units of an item the customer cannot find, either because the goods sit in the back room without being restocked, or because an inventory error happened somewhere along the chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This difference is expensive precisely because it is invisible. The system raises no alert, because as far as it is concerned everything is fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No single solution fits everyone<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A panel on loss and computer vision brought together executives from Lenovo, AiFi, Rocketboots and the Bozzutos chain. Carlos Landrau, of Bozzutos, left a message that clashes with the usual optimism of this kind of event: there is no perfect solution for everyone. The choice depends on store size and the maturity of the operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That sentence is worth keeping. A chain with four stores and a simple management system does not follow the same path as a chain with its own distribution center and three hundred locations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4038\" src=\"https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque.jpg\" alt=\"Corredor de supermercado com prateleiras cheias, resultado de uma reposi\u00e7\u00e3o de estoque eficiente\" width=\"1200\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/corredor-supermercado-reposicao-estoque-16x12.jpg 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Walmart, Kroger and other chains are doing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moving from diagnosis to practice helps to understand what has already left the drawing board out there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Walmart and the inventory that fixes itself<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Walmart has named its system &quot;Self-Healing Inventory,&quot; which identifies inventory imbalances between stores and automatically redirects merchandise to where it is lacking, before the problem even appears in the store. <a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.walmart.com\/news\/2025\/07\/17\/walmarts-us-supply-chain-playbook-goes-global-and-its-reinventing-retail-at-scale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The company itself reported<\/a> that this system alone has already saved more than 55 million dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chain runs two other fronts in parallel. Enterprise Inventory consolidates into a single view the stock in stores, distribution centers and the online channel, ending the divergence between what each system sees. And there are AI tools where an associate asks, in natural language, something like \u201cwhich items were shorted in these stores?\u201d, and gets the answer along with a recommended next step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is worth noting that Walmart did not treat this as a lab pilot. The technology was rolled out to operations in Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, Chile, India and South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kroger and the AI that reaches the people restocking<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kroger took a different and equally pragmatic path: putting artificial intelligence in the hands of store staff. The chain rolled out a virtual assistant that provides real-time information and helps organize the day's tasks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">David Kennerley, the company's senior vice president and chief financial officer, credited the improvement in losses to investments in AI-enabled technology and to the new processes built around it. The company also linked the tool to record levels of employee retention, with a logic that makes sense in retail: people who stay longer know the store better and restock better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One honest caveat: Kroger has not disclosed a percentage reduction in stockouts. What exists are general indicators, such as the 3.2% growth in same-store sales in the first quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Computer vision reading the shelf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another front gaining traction is the use of cameras and computer vision to check the shelf without relying on manual counts. Instacart's Store View analyzes images captured inside the store and classifies each item into three states: available, running low or out of stock. The Good Food Holdings chain already uses the tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk pooling, the technique underpinning the rest<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Behind these initiatives lies an old logistics principle called risk pooling. The idea is to concentrate safety stock at the distribution center instead of spreading it across all stores. Because demand variations at each location partially offset one another, the chain can keep the same availability level with less total inventory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the kind of decision that requires reliable data and recurring calculation, which is why it usually comes hand in hand with automation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to reduce stockouts in a mid-sized operation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No Brazilian chain needs Walmart's budget to attack stockouts. What these operations did differently was to treat availability as a management indicator, not as a store complaint. A few concrete steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Measure stockouts by what the customer could not find<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many chains measure inventory accuracy and think they are measuring stockouts. They are different things. Accuracy compares the system with the stockroom. A stockout is the absence of the product at the exact spot where the customer reaches out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start by defining how you will capture this, whether through sample shelf checks, analysis of zero sales on items with known turnover, or automated scanning. Without that measurement, any investment becomes a bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Use the data you already have<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The information needed to predict shortages is almost always already inside the company, scattered across the ERP, the point-of-sale system and the buyer's spreadsheets. The initial work is rarely buying a new system. It is connecting what is loose and cleaning what is inconsistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Take the information to the people restocking<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A report that reaches the buyer on Monday does not prevent Saturday's stockout. The common lesson from Walmart and Kroger is that data needs to reach the people with their hands on the product, while there is still time to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Leave the final decision with people<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both international examples keep a human in the loop. The technology prepares the order suggestion, calculates quantities, prioritizes urgency. Approval remains with a person. This design has a practical advantage beyond governance: it speeds up adoption, because the team does not feel it has lost control of the operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Factor in external variables<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Demand forecasting based only on sales history fails precisely on the days that matter most. Weather, the commercial calendar, local holidays and events in the area change the consumption of entire categories. The models the big chains use incorporate these variables, and that is one of the differences between forecasting well and forecasting reasonably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The path is data, not guesswork<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stockouts in Brazilian food retail have fallen to 10.8%, and that improvement has merit. But the number still represents a relevant slice of revenue slipping away every month, made worse by the fact that 58% of customers who do not find what they are looking for stop coming back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What NRF 2026 made clear is that the world's biggest chains have stopped treating stockouts as an operational accident and started treating them as a forecasting problem. They are not guessing better. They are calculating better, with the data they already had and with models that run every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shift is within reach for mid-sized chains in Brazil. It requires less investment in new technology than most people assume, and more discipline in integrating systems, measuring the right indicator and putting information in the hands of whoever restocks the shelf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was with this scenario in mind that we developed <strong>INTEGRA<\/strong>, our autonomous replenishment platform, which uses artificial intelligence to anticipate product shortages, item by item and store by store, connecting to the systems the chain already uses. If you want to understand how much stockouts cost your operation per day, <a href=\"https:\/\/integrity-ux.com.br\/en\/contato\/\">talk to one of our specialists<\/a> and we can run the numbers with your own data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This content was produced by the Integrity-UX team, an IT consulting firm specializing in infrastructure, cloud, security, and business continuity for medium and large companies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A ruptura m\u00e9dia nas lojas brasileiras est\u00e1 em 10,8% e o custo global chega a US$ 1,7 trilh\u00e3o por ano. Veja o que a NRF 2026 mostrou e o que Walmart e Kroger est\u00e3o fazendo para manter a g\u00f4ndola abastecida.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[55,54,56,60,61,58,59],"class_list":["post-4041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sem-categoria","tag-data-driven-2","tag-retail","tag-varejo","tag-inteligencia-artificial","tag-nrf-2026","tag-ruptura-de-estoque","tag-supermercados"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ruptura de Estoque no Varejo: Dados da NRF 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ruptura de estoque custa US$ 1,7 tri por ano ao varejo. 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